MoneyDJ新聞 2016-09-07 15:53:30 記者 郭妍希 報導
金價接下來要怎麼走，得看實體黃金的供需狀況。2011年暢銷財經書《下一波全球貨幣大戰》(Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis)作者James Rickards警告，中國、印度積極囤金，美國、英國的黃金ETF投資者跟著推波助瀾，導致實體黃金的供給愈來愈吃緊。假使有一天投資「紙上黃金」的人們發現，他們手上的合約根本無從兌換真的黃金，那麼紙黃金體制必會瓦解，金價也將一飛衝天(super-spike)。
Rickards日前在The Daily Reckoning網站撰文指出，紐約商品期貨交易所(COMEX)的黃金期貨以及黃金ETF都是所謂的紙黃金，資料顯示這些紙上合約承諾的黃金總量，大概是實體黃金的100倍(甚至更多)。只要紙上黃金的投資人要求以實體黃金結算，他們就會驚覺，世界上根本就沒有這麼多實體黃金可以流通，屆時勢必會引爆黃金爭奪戰，金價也會飆高好幾千美元，金礦類股更將狂漲十倍以上，而期貨交易所也會被迫關閉。
那麼，黃金恐慌買盤何時引爆？Rickards認為，一切都要觀察實體黃金的供需動向。各國實體黃金的進出口資料，以瑞士最為透明，而瑞士進口黃金主要是為了精煉，之後會出口到世界各地，同時瑞士既無金礦、民眾也無囤金習慣，因此相當適合用來觀察全球實體黃金的流動方向。
根據Rickards觀察，瑞士過去四個月一直是黃金的淨出口國，這代表市場需求強勁，但供給卻頗為緊縮。若瑞士的黃金持續呈現淨出口，那就代表需求過多、供給減少，金價也將跟著走強。數據並顯示，瑞士精煉過的黃金主要出口到五處，分別是中國大陸、香港、印度、英國與美國，共佔總出口量的91%。
要注意的是，香港進口的黃金一般會「再次出口」到大陸，以滿足大陸民眾、人行和主權基金對黃金的需求。另一方面，瑞士也出口102公噸的黃金到英國和美國，大多是為供應黃金ETF投資者所需。ETF對金價通常會有推波助瀾的作用，金價的波動常遭ETF誇大。
Rickards警告，他所得到的第一手消息顯示，瑞士的黃金供給量已經相當吃緊，假如短缺繼續惡化，那麼金價肯定會跳高，屆時ETF需求更將助長金價火焰，而整個紙黃金體制遲早要崩塌。
其實，在英國脫歐之前，就有消息傳出英國民眾大量搶金，市場面臨流動性與供給問題。Zero Hedge 6月22日報導，黃金業界資深人士(其中一名還是瑞士煉金大廠的高層)透露，銀行間或機構黃金交易市場人士已開始「驚慌失措」，黃金市場面臨流動性與供給問題，情勢之緊繃連美國911恐攻、雷曼兄弟倒閉以及歐元區金融危機的高峰期間都比不上。
煉金廠與鑄金廠都已被告知，黃金交易銀行也許會「直接暫停實體黃金交易」，包括Intl FC Stone在內的大型流動性提供商都已拉高保證金。也就是說，機構投資者的高額黃金買單成本比中小型訂單還貴，進而打擊大筆買進實體黃金的需求。(相關新聞見此)
雖然英國脫歐之後金價漲勢稍歇，但民間投資人熱度不減，8月買超近半噸黃金，加碼量創2012年年底以來的新高紀錄！
倫敦24小時線上黃金交易網站《BullionVault》9月6日報導，旗下客戶8月份的黃金淨買量共計多達470公斤，整體客戶儲金量也跟著拉升至35.7公噸、創史上高。有趣的是，客戶幾乎都把黃金儲存在蘇黎世，並未選擇BullionVault位於倫敦、紐約、新加坡與多倫多的金庫。
原文:
http://www.moneydj.com/KMDJ/News/NewsViewer.aspx?a=89029001-5e54-4589-a444-06916f886541
延伸:
實體黃金有詭！美今年來對瑞士的進口較去年暴增18倍 實體黃金有詭！美今年來對瑞士的進口較去年暴增18倍
Monday, October 3, 2016
引: U.S. Imports Record Amount Of Gold From Switzerland In July
It seems as if the tide has changed as the U.S. imported a record amount of gold from Switzerland in July. Normally, the flow of gold from the United States has been heading toward Switzerland. For example, when the U.S. exported a record 691 metric tons (mt) of gold in 2013, Switzerland received 284 mt, which accounted for 41% of the total. Compare that to the paltry 3 metric tons of gold imported from Switzerland that very same year.
However, something has changed in the market dynamics as the U.S. imported a record 23.8 mt of gold from Switzerland in July:
As I stated in my previous article, WHAT’S GOING ON?? Record Swiss Gold Flow Into The United States: the Swiss exported 20.7 mt of gold in May 2016, up considerably from its monthly average 0.4 mt. Even though gold imports from Switzerland declined the next month to only 13.1 mt in June, they were still much higher than their monthly average going back until Jan. 2015.
But, as we can see… U.S. gold imports from Switzerland jumped 82% in July to 23.8 mt compared to June. There has been speculation in the precious metals community as to why the Swiss are now exported gold to the United States. While many theories seem plausible, the one that makes the most sense is that investors in Europe who have their gold stored in Switzerland are moving it to the United States to protect it from the implications of negative interest rates.
Furthermore, after the Brexit vote for the U.K. to leave the European Union (In June), it has also put a lot of stress on investors holding assets within the E.U. countries. For whatever reason, gold bullion is now flowing into the United States from Switzerland in record volume for the first time in many years.
This next chart shows the annual imports of gold from Switzerland going back until 2000:
As we can see, Switzerland’s gold exports to the U.S. are already 60.7 mt in 2016, up more than 18 times the volume in 2015. Again, for whatever reason, Swiss gold is heading into the United States in record volume.
In addition, this is the first year the U.S. has imported more gold than it has exported in several years:
In 2012, the United States exported a record 693 mt of gold, while imports were only 332 mt. Even though the volume of U.S. gold exports declined in 2014 and 2015, they were still much higher than imports (62% & 86% respectively).
However, this has changed in the first seven months of 2016, as the U.S. has imported 249 mt of gold versus exports of only 190 mt. The majority of the increase of U.S. gold imports came from Switzerland. Of the 249 mt of U.S. gold imports Jan-July 2016, Switzerland accounted for 60.7 mt, compared to only 3 mt in 2015.
With the upcoming Chinese Yuan into the IMF SDR (Special Drawing Rights) on Oct 1st, the situation for the U.S. Dollar going forward will come under increased stress as global trade moves more into Chinese Yuan currency. This will negatively impact the U.S. Treasury holdings by foreigners as they move into owning more Chinese Yuan for trade.
The days of the U.S. Dollar Reserve currency status is coming to an end. It is no surprise that Russia and China continue to add a great deal of gold to their official holdings.
Lastly, I will be publishing a very important article on the precious metals next week. It will provide analysis on the top four precious metals (Gold, Platinum, Palladium and Silver) that most investors have not seen before. It will be out either Monday or Tuesday next week.
Source:
https://srsroccoreport.com/u-s-imports-record-amount-of-gold-from-switzerland-in-july/
引 : 實體黃金有詭！美今年來對瑞士的進口較去年暴增18倍
實體黃金有詭！美今年來對瑞士的進口較去年暴增18倍
MoneyDJ新聞 2016-09-26 09:28:18 記者 郭妍希 報導
追蹤黃金報價的期貨、ETF滿天飛，但這些合約承諾的黃金、卻是現實世界總產量的100倍(甚至更多)，先前也傳出有期貨、ETF投資人要求以實體黃金結算，卻換不到黃金的消息。以此來看，過去數年向來以出口黃金為主的美國，7月跟瑞士進口的實體黃金卻突然暴增8成、單月進口量登史上高，年初迄今的進口量更是去年一整年的18倍，這樣的消息相當值得關注。
SRSrocco Report 23日報導，統計顯示，美國7月從瑞士進口的黃金總量飆升至23.8噸、較6月的13.1噸高出82%之多，而5月的進口量也多達20.7噸，這三個月的進口量都遠多於2015年1月以來的平均月進口量(0.4噸)。(圖表見此)
不僅如此，美國今(2016)年迄今從瑞士進口的黃金總量已經高達60.7噸，是去年一整年(3.3公噸)的18倍之多！
如此奇怪的現象也引發諸多揣測。有人認為，把黃金儲藏在瑞士的歐洲投資人，為了避免負利率的衝擊，因此決定把黃金移往美國。另外則有人猜測，英國6月舉行公投決定脫歐後，在歐盟國家持有資產的投資人面臨了龐大壓力。無論是哪種原因，實體黃金的流向的確已開始逆轉，美國從瑞士進口的黃金總量大幅跳增，是多年以來首見。這是相當不尋常的現象。正常來講，實體黃金通常都是從美國流向瑞士，舉例來說，美國2013年就出口了691噸的黃金、創歷史新高，瑞士當年則收到284噸。
為何要觀察瑞士相對於美國的黃金進出口數據？2011年暢銷財經書《下一波全球貨幣大戰》(Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis)作者James Rickards 9月初在The Daily Reckoning網站撰文解釋，各國實體黃金的進出口資料，以瑞士最為透明，而瑞士進口黃金主要是為了精煉，之後會出口到世界各地，同時瑞士既無金礦、民眾也無囤金習慣，因此相當適合用來觀察全球實體黃金的流動方向。
根據Rickards當時的說法，紐約商品期貨交易所(COMEX)的黃金期貨以及黃金ETF都是所謂的紙黃金，資料顯示這些紙上合約承諾的黃金總量，大概是實體黃金的100倍(甚至更多)。只要紙上黃金的投資人要求以實體黃金結算，他們就會驚覺，世界上根本就沒有這麼多實體黃金可以流通，屆時勢必會引爆黃金爭奪戰，金價也會飆高好幾千美元，金礦類股更將狂漲十倍以上，而期貨交易所也會被迫關閉。
黃金恐慌買盤何時引爆？Rickards認為，一切都要觀察實體黃金的供需動向。根據Rickards觀察，瑞士過去四個月一直是黃金的淨出口國，這代表市場需求強勁，但供給卻頗為緊縮。若瑞士的黃金持續呈現淨出口，那就代表需求過多、供給減少，金價也將跟著走強。數據並顯示，瑞士精煉過的黃金主要出口到五處，分別是中國大陸、香港、印度、英國與美國，共佔總出口量的91%。
Rickards警告，他所得到的第一手消息顯示，瑞士的黃金供給量已經相當吃緊，假如短缺繼續惡化，那麼金價肯定會跳高，屆時ETF需求更將助長金價火焰，而整個紙黃金體制遲早要崩塌。(詳細新聞見此)
原文:
http://www.moneydj.com/funddj/ya/yp050000.djhtm?a=4B3B3CEF-CD9C-427F-83C9-1D82581EBC6F
Sunday, October 2, 2016
英國首相Teresa May 落實英國脫歐時間表為明天三月
"PM May says to trigger EU divorce by end of March" - http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN12208E
World News 世界新聞
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Friday, September 30, 2016
引:Ten People Who Will Be Key in Deciding Deutsche Bank’s Future
Ten People Who Will Be Key in Deciding Deutsche Bank’s Future
September 30, 2016 — 6:01 AM HKT
Could the Euro Benefit from Pressurized Banks?
Players include Merkel, Achleitner, Draghi and Schaeuble
DBK boss Cryan: Raising capital is “currently not an issue”
Pressure on Deutsche Bank AG has increased since the lender revealed two weeks ago the U.S. Justice Department is asking for $14 billion to settle a probe tied to residential mortgage-backed securities the bank traded before the 2008 financial crisis.
Amid concerns about the bank’s finances, about 10 hedge funds that use its prime brokerage service moved part of their listed derivatives holdings to other firms this week, according to an internal bank document Bloomberg News has seen
Germany’s biggest lender is firing workers, dumping unprofitable clients and exiting businesses. Still, doubts remain about whether it has the resources to cope with multiple legal probes without raising capital -- though Deutsche Bank and the German government have said the company can stand on its own.
As the saga unfolds, here are 10 people who will be instrumental in deciding Deutsche Bank’s fate:
Bill Baer
Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
BILL BAER. The U.S. Justice Department’s No. 3 official is calling the shots in the Deutsche Bank talks. An antitrust lawyer by training, Baer was previously chief of the division that oversees reviews of mergers and acquisitions, where he gained a reputation for aggressively opposing deals the department deemed anticompetitive. Baer last year secured guilty pleas and $6 billion in penalties from a group of lenders over currency-market rigging. While he hasn’t directly commented on Deutsche Bank, Baer says banks are to blame for slow progress in mortgage settlement talks. “Each prolonged the period in which a cloud of uncertainty hung over the institution,” Baer said in a speech this week. “And each paid a lot more than it would have if it had cooperated early on.”
JOHN CRYAN. Deutsche Bank’s chief executive officer is trying to shore up capital buffers and profitability while selling assets, cutting jobs, and suspending dividends. Cryan faces headwinds from volatile markets, negative interest rates and tougher regulatory scrutiny. Cryan this week told Germany’s Bild newspaper that raising capital is “currently not an issue” and said he has no interest in government support.
Paul Achleitner
Photographer: Martin Leissl/Bloomberg
PAUL ACHLEITNER. The chairman of Deutsche Bank’s supervisory board is known for his deep contacts across the industry. He chose Cryan to pick up the pieces after previous leaders failed to root out the misconduct that had drawn the wrath of prosecutors from New York to London. But Achleitner’s star has begun to fade as investors grow impatient with a plunging share price and continuing turmoil. The chinks became visible in April, when he became embroiled in a boardroom feud over probes into alleged wrongdoing.
ANGELA MERKEL. The German chancellor would make the final decision on any state aid for Deutsche Bank. Having steered Germany through the 2008-2009 financial crisis, she’s a veteran of bank rescues. That experience has also given her an acute awareness of the political pitfalls of assisting the financial sector, especially as Germany prepares for national elections next year. Cautious by nature, this week she said she hopes the bank “can develop well.”
Wolfgang Schaeuble
Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg
WOLFGANG SCHAEUBLE. The German finance minister, the country’s elder statesman and Merkel’s chief lieutenant on financial matters, would craft and execute any government rescue of Deutsche Bank. In February he said he has “no concerns about Deutsche Bank.” These days, he’s avoiding public comment -- though on Wednesday his ministry denied a report in Die Zeit that the government was working on a rescue plan.
MARIO DRAGHI. The European Central Bank president would likely become involved before a lender is liquidated or broken up. While decisions of the ECB’s supervisory arm are usually rubber-stamped by the Governing Council, in this case policy makers may want to weigh the gravity of a bank’s woes against the potentially crippling effects that dissolving a lender would have on the euro and Europe’s economic recovery. Draghi has said he doesn’t “share the view” that low interest rates -- the root of many of Deutsche Bank’s problems -- pose systemic risk.
DANIELE NOUY. The chair of the European Central Bank’s Supervisory Board is in charge of scrutinizing Deutsche Bank’s activities and balance sheet. She will have the final say in setting the bank’s capital requirements for 2017, and would make the initial call on whether a struggling bank is no longer viable. She has suggested that Europe’s banking sector is ripe for consolidation.
Elke Koenig
Photographer: Ralph Orlowski/Bloomberg
ELKE KOENIG. The chairwoman of the Single Resolution Board in Brussels would manage any eventual liquidation or breakup of Deutsche Bank. Koenig is the first chief of the agency, established in December 2014 as a clearinghouse for plans to mitigate the negative impact of any major bank failure. As the former chief of Germany’s banking supervisor, she’s well acquainted with Deutsche Bank’s difficulties.
FELIX HUFELD. The president of BaFin, Germany’s financial markets watchdog, works with his Bundesbank and ECB colleagues to monitor banks. While Germany’s representatives on the ECB’s Supervisory Board include Bafin and the Bundesbank, only Hufeld has voting rights. He hasn’t commented on Deutsche Bank specifically, but Hufeld has said low interest rates are devastating bank profits and that institutions must cut costs to survive. “Things can’t continue as they have,” he said at a conference in Berlin on Wednesday.
MARGRETHE VESTAGER. The former Danish finance minister is now in charge of competition and state aid for the European Union’s executive arm. She would need to scrutinize any government rescue plan to check that it doesn’t fall afoul of the EU’s strict limits on giving companies public support.
Cryan Says Deutsche Bank Is Strong, ‘No Basis’ for SpeculationDeutsche Bank Troubles Sour Quarter’s End for European EquitiesFines, Withdrawals, Job Cuts. It Was an Ugly Day for Global BanksRepublicans Slam Clinton for Deutsche Speeches as Firm Slumps
Fines, Withdrawals, Job Cuts. It Was an Ugly Day for Global Banks
September 30, 2016 — 5:50 AM HKT
What Do Deutsche Bank Clients, Investors Fear?
Funds pull cash from Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank to slash jobs
Wells Fargo’s Stumpf grilled by House committee over accounts
Even before the opening bell in New York, Thursday looked like a grim day for some of the giants of global banking.
But few expected the barrage of bad news that soon hit on both sides of the Atlantic -- a rat-a-tat-tat of job cuts, scandal and financial worry that sent bank shares tumbling and left many investors wondering just where or when the pain would end.
It began in Germany, where long-struggling Commerzbank AG unveiled yet another plan to regain its footing, this time by cutting one in five of its employees. In Washington, came still more blistering attacks on John Stumpf, whose grip atop embattled Wells Fargo & Co., the largest U.S. mortgage lender, remains tenuous amid the uproar over a scandal involving unauthorized accounts.
And then, back in Germany, came the bombshell: revelations that some hedge funds were moving to reduce their financial exposure to Deutsche Bank, now the biggest worry in global finance. Before Stumpf left the U.S. House chambers after more than four hours of grilling, news broke his bank would be hit with more penalties after improperly repossessing cars owned by U.S. soldiers.
“While each has unique challenges, the overwhelming thing that has happened to the banks is they’re forgetting their purpose, while complexity is increasing opportunity for errors,” said Jon Lukomnik, executive director of the Investor Responsibility Research Center Institute in New York.
Eight years after the financial crisis, the global banking industry is groping for a way forward. Global regulators have sought to make banks look more like boring utilities, but that road has proven steep. Emboldened by an international populist groundswell, they continue to dole out fines and penalties, and firms are scrambling for ways to make money as trading volumes decline and capital requirements become more stringent.
The 38-company Bloomberg Europe Banks and Financial Services Index has tumbled 24 percent this year, while the KBW Bank Index of 24 U.S. lenders has slid 4.6 percent, led by Wells Fargo’s 18 percent decline.
In the past 10 days, Stumpf has agreed to forgo $41 million in compensation, and an adviser to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan glibly suggested on Twitter that Turkey buy Deutsche Bank as its market value fell by more than half this year. The German lender is now barely worth more than the $14 billion settlement the U.S. Department of Justice would like to extract in a long-running investigation of the bank’s mortgage securities business.
Commerzbank Chief Executive Officer Martin Zielke announced plans Thursday to eliminate 9,600 jobs, leaving it no bigger than it was before its 2008 acquisition of Dresdner Bank. The Frankfurt-based bank has lost about 39 percent of its market value this year.
“Germany is still overbanked, and it’s tough to have Germany as your home base when you want to compete with French, Spanish or American peers that operate in less fragmented home markets,” said Klaus Fleischer, a professor of finance at the University of Applied Sciences in Munich.
Wells Fargo agreed to pay more than $24 million to the Justice Department and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to settle allegations that it improperly repossessed cars owned by members of the military.
“I don’t personally see how you survive,” Representative Denny Heck, a Washington Democrat, told Stumpf Thursday as the 63-year-old CEO testified before the House Financial Services Committee.
Lawmakers called for Stumpf to be fired, for Wells Fargo’s board to be replaced and for the bank to be broken up.
“Your problem is coming,” Representative Mike Capuano, a Massachusetts Democrat, told Stumpf at the hearings. “You think today is tough? It’s coming. When the prosecutors get ahold of you, you’re going to have a lot of fun."
As the hearing was under way, news broke that some of Deutsche Bank’s clients were said to be reducing their collateral on trades, sending its New York-listed shares down as much as 9.1 percent. Earlier this week, CEO John Cryan was forced to shoot down speculation the bank needs more capital and may require a bailout, as its shares touch record lows and a U.S. litigation settlement looms.
“Our trading clients are amongst the world’s most sophisticated investors,” Michael Golden, a spokesman for Deutsche Bank, said in an e-mailed statement. “We are confident that the vast majority of them have a full understanding of our stable financial position, the current macroeconomic environment, the litigation process in the U.S. and the progress we are making with our strategy.”
寫: Contingent Convertible Bonds (CoCo Bond)
最近德銀財務上似乎頗為嚴峻，又要炒人重組架構甚麼的，而導致其墮入這嚴峻狀態的其中一大原因就是 CoCo Bond，所以花一些時間去理解一下CoCo Bond，順便記錄下來。
CoCo Bond是甚麼?
以下為 Investopedia 的解釋。
Contingent convertibles (CoCos) are similar to traditional convertible bonds in that there is a strike price, which is the cost of the stock when the bond converts into stock. What differs is that there is another threshold in addition to the strike price, which triggers the conversion when certain capital conditions are met.
Read more: Contingent Convertibles - CoCos Definition | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/contingentconvertible.asp#ixzz4Lik5bES9
CoCo Bond是甚麼?
以下為 Investopedia 的解釋。
Contingent convertibles (CoCos) are similar to traditional convertible bonds in that there is a strike price, which is the cost of the stock when the bond converts into stock. What differs is that there is another threshold in addition to the strike price, which triggers the conversion when certain capital conditions are met.
Read more: Contingent Convertibles - CoCos Definition | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/contingentconvertible.asp#ixzz4Lik5bES9
簡單來說就是可換股的債，而這種可換股的債是在一些「特定條件」下，會觸發到債主必須或可能要把手上的CoCo債轉換成該公司的股份。
而一般銀行發的的CoCo Bond ，其觸發的「特定條件」，就是銀行本身的資本充足率(Capital Ratio)若低於某水平後就會觸發債變股情況。
銀行發CoCo Bond的好處，從Econ記者的blog裡有簡單易明的說明。
「扼要來說，就是政府不用在銀行出現資不抵債的情況時bail-out銀行，所謂Bail-out亦即是大量注資給銀行。Bail-out需能救得銀行不致缺資金而倒閉，但卻不能根治原本導致資不抵債而流血的源頭，而且更導致銀行由一個爛蘋果變成一個更大的爛蘋果。 CoCo Bond 同樣不能根治資不抵債流血的源頭，但卻能發揮Bail-in 功能，因為由債變股，能在帳目上減少債又以變成股的方式增大資本，變相改變了Capital Ratio 資不抵債的帳目狀況。 」
-- 出自Econ 記者的 下一個金融海嘯的源頭－Coco Bonds ，
明明有此好處，為甚麼CoCo Bond又變成了債房毒藥?
這是因為不同銀行的CoCo Bond，其「特定條件」除了資本充足率的確觸發點外，亦有更多形形式式的觸發點，而其中一些觸發條款不但使債變股，更會令債主變一無所有。
Econ記者的解釋簡單易明。
「當市場上有過多的Coco Bonds時，好易引發Death Spiral（死亡循環），當大跌市出現將觸發Coco Bonds債變股，但這樣下來投資者就要開始承受更大的損失（本來持債權，銀行一日違約，理論上仍無大損失，但變成股權則會馬上錄得損失）。而如果投資者又同時大量沽售這批股份，供應大增勢會令跌幅加劇，更甚至可觸發對銀行的信心危機。」
而更嚴重的問題，就是市場上很多投資者根本就係唔了解CoCo Bond本質，唔知自己買乜。而銀行打工既人本身亦無動力要去教投資者其內容風險。
結果就是 「一群無知」配合「一群唔想你知」，而導致資本不足的源頭又從無解決。
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