US China Trade War 2018

2018/09/21

9/17/2018 US announces 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese exports effective September 24 until the end of 2018, to rise to 25 percent afterward. Smart watches and a few other items from the preliminary list are exempted.
Related HS code list:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1cK1Lzi-zyitKIjF0FO2M7BPJ4RdsTDWV

9/6/2018 End of comment period for tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports. China’s retaliation might begin immediately after the US action.

8/23/2018 Tariffs on $16 billion of Chinese imports to begin. Chinese retaliation of tariffs on $16 billion of US exports to begin.

8/03/2018 China announces a list of $60 billion worth of US imports it plans to apply tariffs on should the Trump administration follow through with higher tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods.

8/02/2018 US Trade Representative confirms that President Trump is considering increasing proposed tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports to 25 percent from 10 percent.

7/31/2018 China, US. reported to be trying to restart trade talks.

7/26/2018 Qualcomm Inc. decides to scrap a $44 billion takeover of NXP Semiconductors NV, because China didn’t sign off as time expired.

READ | China set to convene meeting on Tuesday to discuss response to US tariffs, says report

7/20/2018 Trump says he’s “ready to go” with tariffs on $500 billion of Chinese imports.

7/11/2018 The USTR releases a list of $200 billion of Chinese goods it plans to impose an extra 10 percent tariffs on.

7/6/2018 Tariffs on $34 billion of imports begin. Tariffs on $34 billion of imports begin.
Related HS code list:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1HXO25iBK3e7agqgW8vjQGUGddpGveB3h

7/6/2018 ZTE Corp. receives limited authorization to resume business.

7/3/2018 US computer chip company Micron Technology Inc. ordered to halt sales in China.

6/27/2018 Trump agrees to less aggressive option to limit Chinese investment in the US

6/21/2018 President Xi Jinping says China will hit back if struck, according to the Wall Street Journal, and criticizes US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo calling Chinese claims of economic openness “a joke.”

6/20/2018 White House releases report accusing China of threatening US interests.

6/19/2018 Trump says US looking to put tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese exports, with another $200 billion after that if China retaliates.

6/18/2018 Pompeo calls Chinese claims of economic openness “a joke.”

6/15/2018 US announces tariffs on $50 billion of imports from China, with Trump threatening more if China retaliates. China responds in kind.

6/15/2018 Qualcomm Inc.’s takeover of NXP Semiconductors NV is said to be approved by Chinese regulators, although a later report contradicts this. 6/15/2018 Pompeo meets Xi, discussing trade and security.

6/7/2018 Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announces deal allowing ZTE to get back into business.

6/6/2018 China said to offer to buy $25 billion more of US goods in 2018.

6/3/2018 China says previous offers and deals are off if tariffs imposed.

6/2-4/2018 Wilbur Ross, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He meet in Beijing for talks.

5/30/2018 China announces cuts to tariffs on some consumer goods, to start July 1.

5/29/2018 US announces plan to limit some visas for Chinese citizens to protect intellectual property.

5/29/2018 US announces that it’s moving ahead with tariffs on $50 billion of imports and a plan to curb investment in sensitive technology.

5/29/2018 China said to be considering buying more US coal to narrow trade deficit.

5/28/2018 At the WTO, US accuses China of imposing laws that result in the theft of US tech and IP.

5/28/2018 China ready to approve Qualcomm/NXP deal if it gets assurances that the US will lift ban on ZTE Corp.

5/28/2018 US said to be pressing China to sign long-term import contracts.

5/25/2018 US announces a $1.3 billion fine and other punishments for ZTE, but will allow company to resume purchasing from American suppliers.

5/23/2018 Trump backs away from the previous day’s deal, saying US will “probably have to use a different structure.”

5/22/2018 China will cut import duties on cars to 15% from 25%.

5/22/2018 Two nations agree on the “broad outline” of a settlement for ZTE dispute, the WSJ reports. China offered to remove tariffs on US farm products as part of the deal.

5/21/2018 Trump tweets that China will buy “massive amounts of additional farm/agricultural products.”

5/20/2018 Both nations reach an agreement and issue a joint statement. The US agrees to hold off on tariffs. China offers to significantly increase purchases of US goods.

5/18/2018 China ends anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation into sorghum.

5/17/2018 Talks start in Washington.

5/14/2018 China is said to restart review of Qualcomm’s proposed NXP deal.

5/13/2018 Trump tweets that he’s working with Xi to get ZTE “back into business.”

5/10/2018 ZTE ceases major operations in the US 5/3-4/2018 Trade talks in Beijing. No agreement is reached, and no statement is released. US demands a $200 billion cut in trade deficit. China protests over ZTE case, demands end of 301 investigation.

4/28/2018 China objects to being on US intellectual property watch list.

4/27/2018 US keeps China on IP priority watch list of nations. 4/26/2018 Reported that China may cut car import tariffs by half.

4/26/2018 Reported that US looking into China’s Huawei Technologies Co. for possible violation of sanctions against Iran.

4/17/2018 China announces it will collect anti-dumping tariffs on sorghum imports from the US, a trade worth about $1 billion in 2017.

4/16/2018 US penalizes China’s ZTE for violating a previous agreement punishing it for doing business with Iran and North Korea. The company is banned from buying US technology for seven years.

4/10/2018 Xi promises to open up various sectors including autos and finance.

4/5/2018 Trump issues statement that says “in light of China’s unfair retaliation” for his initial tariffs, his administration will consider an addition $100 billion in tariffs.

4/5/2018 China complains to the World Trade Organization about US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

4/4/2018 US responds to China’s WTO complaint on the section 301 tariffs, calling it baseless.

4/4/2018 China complains to WTO about the section 301 tariff action by the US

4/4/2018 China says it will levy an additional 25 percent tariff on imports of 106 US products including soybeans, automobiles, chemicals and aircraft, in response to proposed American duties on its high-tech goods.

4/3/2018 The US releases a list dominated by high-tech industrial products as targets for proposed tariffs on $50 billion worth of imports. This is aimed at recouping losses from China’s alleged abuse of intellectual property.

4/2/2018 China says it will start levying tariffs on $3 billion of US imports including fresh fruits, nuts, wine and pork. Early April Liu He tells other officials that trade talks between the two parties broke down after the US demanded that China curtail support for high-technology industries. Beijing had offered to cut the bilateral trade deficit by $50 billion.

3/27/2018 US releases Section 301 report on China.

3/23/2018 China unveils tariffs on $3 billion of US imports in response to steel and aluminum tariffs .

3/23/2018 US complains to WTO about Chinese protection of IP.

3/22/2018 US proposes tariffs in response to China’s “unfair trade practices” related to technology transfer, IP, and innovation; says it will complain to WTO and look at restricting investment from China.

3/9/2018 Trump signs tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from all nations, including China.

2/4/2018 China starts a one-year anti-subsidy investigation into sorghum imported from the US

1/22/2018 US imposes safeguard tariffs on washing machine and solar cell imports. While much of these imports don’t come from China, the statement makes clear that Chinese dominance of the global supply chain was a concern.

Reference:

https://indianexpress.com/article/business/world-market/us-china-trade-war-timeline-of-how-we-got-here-and-whats-next-5361700/

引: (學習文) 美國公債

美國公債是美國財政部通過公債局發行的政府債券，屬貨幣市場工具，大致可分為四大種類：

1.U.S. Treasury bill叫作美國國庫券，英文簡稱T-bill，為美國政府發行的短天期債券，到期天數分別為4週，13週及26週、52週，每週拍賣一次。

2.U.S. Treasury Note稱為美國國庫票據，英文簡稱T-Note，發行期限在十年內，可分為2年、3年、5年、7年，2年期T-Note每月拍賣一次；3年期T-Note每季進行一次拍賣，分別在2、5、8、11月；5年期T-Note每月拍賣一次；10年期T-Note一年拍賣八次，分別在2、3、5、6、8、9、11及12月。

3.U.S. Treasury Bonds，英文簡稱T-Bonds，發行期限在十年以上，年限有10年、20年、30年。2002年二月曾經停止30年期國庫長期債券的發行，2006年二月又重新發行。

4.Treasury Inflation Protected Securities稱為美國國庫抗通膨債券，英文簡稱TIPS，1997年1月15日首次發行，本金具有隨通貨膨脹或緊縮作調整的特性，有三種到期天數，分別為5年、10年及20年。


2011年就在全球關注歐債的同時，美債違約危機警報大響。事實上，自1960年來，美國國會已採取了78次永久性的提高、暫時延長或修改定義債務上限，平均每八個月提高一次，其中共和黨及民主黨總統執政時期次數分別為49次和29次，2011年7月31日美國總統歐巴馬宣布兩黨對於提高美債上限達成協定，總計已採取了79次提高債務上限政策。

根據美國財政部公布的數據顯示，2011年5月突破的14.34兆美元的債務總額中，國內外投資者持有金額約9.74兆美元，通稱為公共持有債務，其餘的4.6兆美元則由美國政府管理的社會保險及信託基金持有。數據顯示9.74兆美元公共債務內，主要國家債權人持有美國國債總額達45140億美元，其中大陸持有金額達11598億美元，依然為持有美債第一大國。

據美國財政部定義，債務上限是指美國政府根據國會授權，用於履行現有法律規定義務，包括社會保險、醫療保險福利、軍事支出、國債利息、退稅及其他支出而產生的債務總額。

全文網址: http://www.moneydj.com/KMDJ/wiki/wikiViewer.aspx?keyid=809be277-f8b8-45ea-b96e-5f8beaff1feb#ixzz4LNVi9LD8 
MoneyDJ 財經知識庫 


債息簡介:

票息如何釐定？取決於數項考慮因素:

1. 到期日越遠，利率越高
   一般來說，當鎖定資金的時間越長，投資者要求的利率越高。
2. 風險越高，利率越高
   這是因為投資者會按他承擔的風險而要求相稱的補償。
3. 通脹越高，利率越高
   為防止通脹蠶食利潤，投資者會把通脹溢價計入他要求的利率內。

以下是常用的債券詞語﹕

詞語	解釋	例子
面值	貸款本金	$10,000
票息	按面值及預定利率而支付的利息	年息 10%
孳息率	債券票息除以債券市價	債券市價< 100，孳息率> 10% 債券市價> 100，孳息率< 10%
到期日	預定的貸款償還日期	由今天起計10年後

數據資料:
US Department of the Treasury

延伸:
詳細說明債券運作及其相關用辭以及投資債券方法 - Schroders

引: U.S. Bond Market’s Biggest Buyers Are Selling Like Never Before

U.S. Bond Market’s Biggest Buyers Are Selling Like Never Before


- Central banks have cut Treasuries for three straight quarters
- Pullback may be a sign the bond market is at a tipping point

They’ve long been one of the most reliable sources of demand for U.S. government debt.
But these days, foreign central banks have become yet another worry for investors in the world’s most important bond market.
Holders like China and Japan have culled their stakes in Treasuries for three consecutive quarters, the most sustained pullback on record, based on the Federal Reserve’s official custodial holdings. The decline has accelerated in the past three months, coinciding with the recent backup in U.S. bond yields.
For Jim Leaviss at M&G Investments in London, that’s cause for concern. A continued retreat could lead to painful losses in a market that some say is already too expensive. But perhaps more important are the consequences for America’s finances. With the U.S. facing deficits that are poised to swell the public debt burden by $10 trillion over the next decade, foreign demand will be crucial in keeping a lid on borrowing costs, especially as the Fed continues to suggest higher interest rates are on the horizon.

The selling pressure from central banks is “something you have to bear in mind,” said Leaviss, whose firm oversees about $374 billion. “This, as well as the Fed, all means we are nearer to the end of the low-yield environment.”
To shield his clients from higher yields, Leaviss said M&G has scaled back on longer-term Treasuries and favors shorter-maturity securities.
Overseas creditors have played a key role in financing America’s debt as the U.S. borrowed heavily in the aftermath of the financial crisis to revive the economy. Since 2008, foreigners have more than doubled their investments in Treasuries and now own about $6.25 trillion.
Central banks have led the way. China, the biggest foreign holder of Treasuries, funneled hundreds of billions of dollars back into the U.S. as its export-based economy boomed.
Now, that’s all starting to change. The amount of U.S. government debt held in custody at the Fed has decreased by $78 billion this quarter, following a decline of almost $100 billion over the first six months of the year. The drop is the biggest on a year-to-date basis since at least 2002 and quadruple the amount of any full year on record, Fed data show.
The custodial data add to evidence that the retreat isn’t simply a one-off. Separate figures from the Treasury Department showed that China pared its stake to $1.22 trillion in July, the lowest level in more than three years. Others, like Japan and Saudi Arabia, have also reduced their holdings this year.
Big holders of Treasuries are selling for a variety of reasons, but they’re all tied to each country’s economic woes. In China, the central bank has been selling U.S. government debt to defend the yuan as slumping growth leads to more capital outflows. Japan, the second-biggest foreign holder, has swapped Treasuries for cash and T-bills as prolonged negative rates in the Asian nation pushed up dollar demand at local banks.

Oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia have been liquidating Treasuries to plug their budget deficits following the collapse of crude prices. Saudi Arabia’s holdings have declined for six straight months to $96.5 billion -- the lowest since November 2014.
“Their trade position is markedly worse” because of the slump in oil, said Peter Jolly, the head of market research at National Australia Bank Ltd. That means “their need to purchase Treasuries is greatly reduced.”
The decline in central bank demand -- which some models show has cut 10-year Treasury yields by an extra 0.4 percentage point -- points to one reason that U.S. borrowing costs may finally be on the upswing after they fell to a record-low 1.318 percent in July.
What’s more, some measures suggest Treasuries aren’t providing any margin of safety.
While yields have risen to 1.6 percent, that’s still leaves many overseas investors vulnerable. For yen- and euro-based buyers who hedge out the dollar’s fluctuations -- a common practice among insurers and pension funds -- yields are effectively negative. Meanwhile, a valuation tool called the term premium stands at minus 0.58 percentage point for 10-year notes. In the previous 50 years, it has almost always been positive.
Despite those warnings, the bulls say things like tepid U.S. growth and $10 trillion of negative-yielding government debt will keep Treasuries in demand.
“It’s still attractive of course,” said Hideo Shimomura, the chief fund investor at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management, which oversees about $118 billion. “People might begin to chase yields again.”
Homegrown demand has helped pick up the slack. Excluding short-term bills, U.S. money managers have snapped up 45 percent of the $1.1 trillion in Treasuries sold at government auctions this year, the highest share since the Treasury began breaking out the data six years ago. In 2011, it was as low as 18 percent. U.S. commercial banks, for their part, have also added to their investments of government debt, boosting stakes to a record $2.38 trillion at the end of August.

Nevertheless, some of the most influential players say in the market it’s time to get defensive. Last week, DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach predicted that benchmark Treasury yields will exceed 2 percent before year-end, echoing his earlier call that the bond market had finally reached a tipping point. At the same time, the Fed signaled at its September meeting that it’s likely to lift rates by December.

For central banks, “why wouldn’t they reduce their Treasury holdings?” said Mark Holman, the chief executive officer at Twentyfour Asset Management, which oversees $9.8 billion. “There is yield available there, but you have a Fed that’s been reasonably clear in what it wants to do -- it’s looking to hike.”
Whatever the case, there’s little doubt that America’s borrowing needs will only grow with time -- and that could add up to hundreds of billions of dollars in additional interest if foreign demand doesn’t hold up.
The Congressional Budget Office forecasts the U.S. deficit will rise to $590 billion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, the first annual increase since 2011. Over the next decade, successive shortfalls to cover costs for Medicare and Social Security will cause the public debt burden to balloon to $23 trillion.
“It’s just the beginning,” said Park Sung-jin, the head of principal investment at Mirae Asset Securities Co., which oversees $8 billion.


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聯儲局為外國央行代為持有的美國國債總額，在第三季減少780億美元，而今年上半年亦錄得1000億減少，這下跌幅度為超碼是2002年以來最大。

這個跌幅相信與中國、沙特阿拉伯及日本央行顯著減持美國國債持債量有關。

- Econ Reporter

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Reference:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-25/u-s-bond-market-s-biggest-buyers-are-selling-like-never-before?utm_content=buffera7487&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer