US China Trade War 2018

2018/09/21

9/17/2018 US announces 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese exports effective September 24 until the end of 2018, to rise to 25 percent afterward. Smart watches and a few other items from the preliminary list are exempted.
Related HS code list:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1cK1Lzi-zyitKIjF0FO2M7BPJ4RdsTDWV

9/6/2018 End of comment period for tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports. China’s retaliation might begin immediately after the US action.

8/23/2018 Tariffs on $16 billion of Chinese imports to begin. Chinese retaliation of tariffs on $16 billion of US exports to begin.

8/03/2018 China announces a list of $60 billion worth of US imports it plans to apply tariffs on should the Trump administration follow through with higher tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods.

8/02/2018 US Trade Representative confirms that President Trump is considering increasing proposed tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports to 25 percent from 10 percent.

7/31/2018 China, US. reported to be trying to restart trade talks.

7/26/2018 Qualcomm Inc. decides to scrap a $44 billion takeover of NXP Semiconductors NV, because China didn’t sign off as time expired.

READ | China set to convene meeting on Tuesday to discuss response to US tariffs, says report

7/20/2018 Trump says he’s “ready to go” with tariffs on $500 billion of Chinese imports.

7/11/2018 The USTR releases a list of $200 billion of Chinese goods it plans to impose an extra 10 percent tariffs on.

7/6/2018 Tariffs on $34 billion of imports begin. Tariffs on $34 billion of imports begin.
Related HS code list:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1HXO25iBK3e7agqgW8vjQGUGddpGveB3h

7/6/2018 ZTE Corp. receives limited authorization to resume business.

7/3/2018 US computer chip company Micron Technology Inc. ordered to halt sales in China.

6/27/2018 Trump agrees to less aggressive option to limit Chinese investment in the US

6/21/2018 President Xi Jinping says China will hit back if struck, according to the Wall Street Journal, and criticizes US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo calling Chinese claims of economic openness “a joke.”

6/20/2018 White House releases report accusing China of threatening US interests.

6/19/2018 Trump says US looking to put tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese exports, with another $200 billion after that if China retaliates.

6/18/2018 Pompeo calls Chinese claims of economic openness “a joke.”

6/15/2018 US announces tariffs on $50 billion of imports from China, with Trump threatening more if China retaliates. China responds in kind.

6/15/2018 Qualcomm Inc.’s takeover of NXP Semiconductors NV is said to be approved by Chinese regulators, although a later report contradicts this. 6/15/2018 Pompeo meets Xi, discussing trade and security.

6/7/2018 Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announces deal allowing ZTE to get back into business.

6/6/2018 China said to offer to buy $25 billion more of US goods in 2018.

6/3/2018 China says previous offers and deals are off if tariffs imposed.

6/2-4/2018 Wilbur Ross, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He meet in Beijing for talks.

5/30/2018 China announces cuts to tariffs on some consumer goods, to start July 1.

5/29/2018 US announces plan to limit some visas for Chinese citizens to protect intellectual property.

5/29/2018 US announces that it’s moving ahead with tariffs on $50 billion of imports and a plan to curb investment in sensitive technology.

5/29/2018 China said to be considering buying more US coal to narrow trade deficit.

5/28/2018 At the WTO, US accuses China of imposing laws that result in the theft of US tech and IP.

5/28/2018 China ready to approve Qualcomm/NXP deal if it gets assurances that the US will lift ban on ZTE Corp.

5/28/2018 US said to be pressing China to sign long-term import contracts.

5/25/2018 US announces a $1.3 billion fine and other punishments for ZTE, but will allow company to resume purchasing from American suppliers.

5/23/2018 Trump backs away from the previous day’s deal, saying US will “probably have to use a different structure.”

5/22/2018 China will cut import duties on cars to 15% from 25%.

5/22/2018 Two nations agree on the “broad outline” of a settlement for ZTE dispute, the WSJ reports. China offered to remove tariffs on US farm products as part of the deal.

5/21/2018 Trump tweets that China will buy “massive amounts of additional farm/agricultural products.”

5/20/2018 Both nations reach an agreement and issue a joint statement. The US agrees to hold off on tariffs. China offers to significantly increase purchases of US goods.

5/18/2018 China ends anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation into sorghum.

5/17/2018 Talks start in Washington.

5/14/2018 China is said to restart review of Qualcomm’s proposed NXP deal.

5/13/2018 Trump tweets that he’s working with Xi to get ZTE “back into business.”

5/10/2018 ZTE ceases major operations in the US 5/3-4/2018 Trade talks in Beijing. No agreement is reached, and no statement is released. US demands a $200 billion cut in trade deficit. China protests over ZTE case, demands end of 301 investigation.

4/28/2018 China objects to being on US intellectual property watch list.

4/27/2018 US keeps China on IP priority watch list of nations. 4/26/2018 Reported that China may cut car import tariffs by half.

4/26/2018 Reported that US looking into China’s Huawei Technologies Co. for possible violation of sanctions against Iran.

4/17/2018 China announces it will collect anti-dumping tariffs on sorghum imports from the US, a trade worth about $1 billion in 2017.

4/16/2018 US penalizes China’s ZTE for violating a previous agreement punishing it for doing business with Iran and North Korea. The company is banned from buying US technology for seven years.

4/10/2018 Xi promises to open up various sectors including autos and finance.

4/5/2018 Trump issues statement that says “in light of China’s unfair retaliation” for his initial tariffs, his administration will consider an addition $100 billion in tariffs.

4/5/2018 China complains to the World Trade Organization about US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

4/4/2018 US responds to China’s WTO complaint on the section 301 tariffs, calling it baseless.

4/4/2018 China complains to WTO about the section 301 tariff action by the US

4/4/2018 China says it will levy an additional 25 percent tariff on imports of 106 US products including soybeans, automobiles, chemicals and aircraft, in response to proposed American duties on its high-tech goods.

4/3/2018 The US releases a list dominated by high-tech industrial products as targets for proposed tariffs on $50 billion worth of imports. This is aimed at recouping losses from China’s alleged abuse of intellectual property.

4/2/2018 China says it will start levying tariffs on $3 billion of US imports including fresh fruits, nuts, wine and pork. Early April Liu He tells other officials that trade talks between the two parties broke down after the US demanded that China curtail support for high-technology industries. Beijing had offered to cut the bilateral trade deficit by $50 billion.

3/27/2018 US releases Section 301 report on China.

3/23/2018 China unveils tariffs on $3 billion of US imports in response to steel and aluminum tariffs .

3/23/2018 US complains to WTO about Chinese protection of IP.

3/22/2018 US proposes tariffs in response to China’s “unfair trade practices” related to technology transfer, IP, and innovation; says it will complain to WTO and look at restricting investment from China.

3/9/2018 Trump signs tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from all nations, including China.

2/4/2018 China starts a one-year anti-subsidy investigation into sorghum imported from the US

1/22/2018 US imposes safeguard tariffs on washing machine and solar cell imports. While much of these imports don’t come from China, the statement makes clear that Chinese dominance of the global supply chain was a concern.

Reference:

https://indianexpress.com/article/business/world-market/us-china-trade-war-timeline-of-how-we-got-here-and-whats-next-5361700/

支爆

中國審判日一
http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/financeestate/art/20161004/19789968

中國審判日二
http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/financeestate/art/20161011/19796845

中國審判日三
http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/financeestate/art/20161018/19803976

中國審判日四
http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/financeestate/art/20161025/19811025

引: 中國國企管理人要為公司決策負上個人責任

"When deals go bad - China state firm managers spooked by new liability rules" - http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKKCN11W2LR

(學習文) 中國國債 China Treausry

從債券形式來看，中國發行的國債可分為憑證式國債、無記名（實物）國債和記賬式國債三種。

　　憑證式國債是一種國家儲蓄債，可記名、掛失，以“憑證式國債收款憑證”記錄債權，不能上市流通，從購買之日起計息。在持有期內，持券人如遇特殊 情況需要提取現金，可以到購買網點提前兌取。提前兌取時，除償還本金外，利息按實際持有天數及相應的利率檔次計算，經辦機構按兌付本金的2‰收取手續費。



　　無記名（實物）國債是一種實物債券，以事物券的形式記錄債權，面值不等，不記名，不掛失，可上市流通。發行期內，投資者可直接在銷售國債機構的 櫃臺購買。在證券交易所設立賬戶的投資者，可委托證券公司通過交易系統申購。發行期結束後，實物券持有者可在櫃臺賣出，也可將實物券交證券交易所托管，再 通過交易系統賣出。

　　記賬式國債以記賬形式記錄債權，通過證券交易所的交易系統發行和交易，可以記名、掛失。投資者進行記賬式證券買賣，必須在證券交易所設立賬戶。由於記賬式國債的發行和交易均無紙化，所以效率高，成本低，交易安全。

引: U.S. Bond Market’s Biggest Buyers Are Selling Like Never Before

U.S. Bond Market’s Biggest Buyers Are Selling Like Never Before


- Central banks have cut Treasuries for three straight quarters
- Pullback may be a sign the bond market is at a tipping point

They’ve long been one of the most reliable sources of demand for U.S. government debt.
But these days, foreign central banks have become yet another worry for investors in the world’s most important bond market.
Holders like China and Japan have culled their stakes in Treasuries for three consecutive quarters, the most sustained pullback on record, based on the Federal Reserve’s official custodial holdings. The decline has accelerated in the past three months, coinciding with the recent backup in U.S. bond yields.
For Jim Leaviss at M&G Investments in London, that’s cause for concern. A continued retreat could lead to painful losses in a market that some say is already too expensive. But perhaps more important are the consequences for America’s finances. With the U.S. facing deficits that are poised to swell the public debt burden by $10 trillion over the next decade, foreign demand will be crucial in keeping a lid on borrowing costs, especially as the Fed continues to suggest higher interest rates are on the horizon.

The selling pressure from central banks is “something you have to bear in mind,” said Leaviss, whose firm oversees about $374 billion. “This, as well as the Fed, all means we are nearer to the end of the low-yield environment.”
To shield his clients from higher yields, Leaviss said M&G has scaled back on longer-term Treasuries and favors shorter-maturity securities.
Overseas creditors have played a key role in financing America’s debt as the U.S. borrowed heavily in the aftermath of the financial crisis to revive the economy. Since 2008, foreigners have more than doubled their investments in Treasuries and now own about $6.25 trillion.
Central banks have led the way. China, the biggest foreign holder of Treasuries, funneled hundreds of billions of dollars back into the U.S. as its export-based economy boomed.
Now, that’s all starting to change. The amount of U.S. government debt held in custody at the Fed has decreased by $78 billion this quarter, following a decline of almost $100 billion over the first six months of the year. The drop is the biggest on a year-to-date basis since at least 2002 and quadruple the amount of any full year on record, Fed data show.
The custodial data add to evidence that the retreat isn’t simply a one-off. Separate figures from the Treasury Department showed that China pared its stake to $1.22 trillion in July, the lowest level in more than three years. Others, like Japan and Saudi Arabia, have also reduced their holdings this year.
Big holders of Treasuries are selling for a variety of reasons, but they’re all tied to each country’s economic woes. In China, the central bank has been selling U.S. government debt to defend the yuan as slumping growth leads to more capital outflows. Japan, the second-biggest foreign holder, has swapped Treasuries for cash and T-bills as prolonged negative rates in the Asian nation pushed up dollar demand at local banks.

Oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia have been liquidating Treasuries to plug their budget deficits following the collapse of crude prices. Saudi Arabia’s holdings have declined for six straight months to $96.5 billion -- the lowest since November 2014.
“Their trade position is markedly worse” because of the slump in oil, said Peter Jolly, the head of market research at National Australia Bank Ltd. That means “their need to purchase Treasuries is greatly reduced.”
The decline in central bank demand -- which some models show has cut 10-year Treasury yields by an extra 0.4 percentage point -- points to one reason that U.S. borrowing costs may finally be on the upswing after they fell to a record-low 1.318 percent in July.
What’s more, some measures suggest Treasuries aren’t providing any margin of safety.
While yields have risen to 1.6 percent, that’s still leaves many overseas investors vulnerable. For yen- and euro-based buyers who hedge out the dollar’s fluctuations -- a common practice among insurers and pension funds -- yields are effectively negative. Meanwhile, a valuation tool called the term premium stands at minus 0.58 percentage point for 10-year notes. In the previous 50 years, it has almost always been positive.
Despite those warnings, the bulls say things like tepid U.S. growth and $10 trillion of negative-yielding government debt will keep Treasuries in demand.
“It’s still attractive of course,” said Hideo Shimomura, the chief fund investor at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management, which oversees about $118 billion. “People might begin to chase yields again.”
Homegrown demand has helped pick up the slack. Excluding short-term bills, U.S. money managers have snapped up 45 percent of the $1.1 trillion in Treasuries sold at government auctions this year, the highest share since the Treasury began breaking out the data six years ago. In 2011, it was as low as 18 percent. U.S. commercial banks, for their part, have also added to their investments of government debt, boosting stakes to a record $2.38 trillion at the end of August.

Nevertheless, some of the most influential players say in the market it’s time to get defensive. Last week, DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach predicted that benchmark Treasury yields will exceed 2 percent before year-end, echoing his earlier call that the bond market had finally reached a tipping point. At the same time, the Fed signaled at its September meeting that it’s likely to lift rates by December.

For central banks, “why wouldn’t they reduce their Treasury holdings?” said Mark Holman, the chief executive officer at Twentyfour Asset Management, which oversees $9.8 billion. “There is yield available there, but you have a Fed that’s been reasonably clear in what it wants to do -- it’s looking to hike.”
Whatever the case, there’s little doubt that America’s borrowing needs will only grow with time -- and that could add up to hundreds of billions of dollars in additional interest if foreign demand doesn’t hold up.
The Congressional Budget Office forecasts the U.S. deficit will rise to $590 billion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, the first annual increase since 2011. Over the next decade, successive shortfalls to cover costs for Medicare and Social Security will cause the public debt burden to balloon to $23 trillion.
“It’s just the beginning,” said Park Sung-jin, the head of principal investment at Mirae Asset Securities Co., which oversees $8 billion.


=====

聯儲局為外國央行代為持有的美國國債總額，在第三季減少780億美元，而今年上半年亦錄得1000億減少，這下跌幅度為超碼是2002年以來最大。

這個跌幅相信與中國、沙特阿拉伯及日本央行顯著減持美國國債持債量有關。

- Econ Reporter

=====

Reference:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-25/u-s-bond-market-s-biggest-buyers-are-selling-like-never-before?utm_content=buffera7487&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

引: 人行進行合共1300億元人民幣逆回購操作

人行進行合共1300億元人民幣逆回購操作

2016-09-26 HKT 09:22

人民銀行今日進行合共1300億元人民幣逆回購操作。（港台圖片）

人民銀行公開市場進行合共1300億元人民幣逆回購操作，其中1200億元為14天期，另外100億元為28天期；單日淨回籠2450億元。

Reference:

http://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/k2/1287104-20160926.htm?utm_content=bufferf170a&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer