US China Trade War 2018

2018/09/21

9/17/2018 US announces 10 percent tariff on $200 billion of Chinese exports effective September 24 until the end of 2018, to rise to 25 percent afterward. Smart watches and a few other items from the preliminary list are exempted.
Related HS code list:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1cK1Lzi-zyitKIjF0FO2M7BPJ4RdsTDWV

9/6/2018 End of comment period for tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese exports. China’s retaliation might begin immediately after the US action.

8/23/2018 Tariffs on $16 billion of Chinese imports to begin. Chinese retaliation of tariffs on $16 billion of US exports to begin.

8/03/2018 China announces a list of $60 billion worth of US imports it plans to apply tariffs on should the Trump administration follow through with higher tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods.

8/02/2018 US Trade Representative confirms that President Trump is considering increasing proposed tariff on $200 billion of Chinese imports to 25 percent from 10 percent.

7/31/2018 China, US. reported to be trying to restart trade talks.

7/26/2018 Qualcomm Inc. decides to scrap a $44 billion takeover of NXP Semiconductors NV, because China didn’t sign off as time expired.

READ | China set to convene meeting on Tuesday to discuss response to US tariffs, says report

7/20/2018 Trump says he’s “ready to go” with tariffs on $500 billion of Chinese imports.

7/11/2018 The USTR releases a list of $200 billion of Chinese goods it plans to impose an extra 10 percent tariffs on.

7/6/2018 Tariffs on $34 billion of imports begin. Tariffs on $34 billion of imports begin.
Related HS code list:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1HXO25iBK3e7agqgW8vjQGUGddpGveB3h

7/6/2018 ZTE Corp. receives limited authorization to resume business.

7/3/2018 US computer chip company Micron Technology Inc. ordered to halt sales in China.

6/27/2018 Trump agrees to less aggressive option to limit Chinese investment in the US

6/21/2018 President Xi Jinping says China will hit back if struck, according to the Wall Street Journal, and criticizes US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo calling Chinese claims of economic openness “a joke.”

6/20/2018 White House releases report accusing China of threatening US interests.

6/19/2018 Trump says US looking to put tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese exports, with another $200 billion after that if China retaliates.

6/18/2018 Pompeo calls Chinese claims of economic openness “a joke.”

6/15/2018 US announces tariffs on $50 billion of imports from China, with Trump threatening more if China retaliates. China responds in kind.

6/15/2018 Qualcomm Inc.’s takeover of NXP Semiconductors NV is said to be approved by Chinese regulators, although a later report contradicts this. 6/15/2018 Pompeo meets Xi, discussing trade and security.

6/7/2018 Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announces deal allowing ZTE to get back into business.

6/6/2018 China said to offer to buy $25 billion more of US goods in 2018.

6/3/2018 China says previous offers and deals are off if tariffs imposed.

6/2-4/2018 Wilbur Ross, Chinese Vice Premier Liu He meet in Beijing for talks.

5/30/2018 China announces cuts to tariffs on some consumer goods, to start July 1.

5/29/2018 US announces plan to limit some visas for Chinese citizens to protect intellectual property.

5/29/2018 US announces that it’s moving ahead with tariffs on $50 billion of imports and a plan to curb investment in sensitive technology.

5/29/2018 China said to be considering buying more US coal to narrow trade deficit.

5/28/2018 At the WTO, US accuses China of imposing laws that result in the theft of US tech and IP.

5/28/2018 China ready to approve Qualcomm/NXP deal if it gets assurances that the US will lift ban on ZTE Corp.

5/28/2018 US said to be pressing China to sign long-term import contracts.

5/25/2018 US announces a $1.3 billion fine and other punishments for ZTE, but will allow company to resume purchasing from American suppliers.

5/23/2018 Trump backs away from the previous day’s deal, saying US will “probably have to use a different structure.”

5/22/2018 China will cut import duties on cars to 15% from 25%.

5/22/2018 Two nations agree on the “broad outline” of a settlement for ZTE dispute, the WSJ reports. China offered to remove tariffs on US farm products as part of the deal.

5/21/2018 Trump tweets that China will buy “massive amounts of additional farm/agricultural products.”

5/20/2018 Both nations reach an agreement and issue a joint statement. The US agrees to hold off on tariffs. China offers to significantly increase purchases of US goods.

5/18/2018 China ends anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation into sorghum.

5/17/2018 Talks start in Washington.

5/14/2018 China is said to restart review of Qualcomm’s proposed NXP deal.

5/13/2018 Trump tweets that he’s working with Xi to get ZTE “back into business.”

5/10/2018 ZTE ceases major operations in the US 5/3-4/2018 Trade talks in Beijing. No agreement is reached, and no statement is released. US demands a $200 billion cut in trade deficit. China protests over ZTE case, demands end of 301 investigation.

4/28/2018 China objects to being on US intellectual property watch list.

4/27/2018 US keeps China on IP priority watch list of nations. 4/26/2018 Reported that China may cut car import tariffs by half.

4/26/2018 Reported that US looking into China’s Huawei Technologies Co. for possible violation of sanctions against Iran.

4/17/2018 China announces it will collect anti-dumping tariffs on sorghum imports from the US, a trade worth about $1 billion in 2017.

4/16/2018 US penalizes China’s ZTE for violating a previous agreement punishing it for doing business with Iran and North Korea. The company is banned from buying US technology for seven years.

4/10/2018 Xi promises to open up various sectors including autos and finance.

4/5/2018 Trump issues statement that says “in light of China’s unfair retaliation” for his initial tariffs, his administration will consider an addition $100 billion in tariffs.

4/5/2018 China complains to the World Trade Organization about US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

4/4/2018 US responds to China’s WTO complaint on the section 301 tariffs, calling it baseless.

4/4/2018 China complains to WTO about the section 301 tariff action by the US

4/4/2018 China says it will levy an additional 25 percent tariff on imports of 106 US products including soybeans, automobiles, chemicals and aircraft, in response to proposed American duties on its high-tech goods.

4/3/2018 The US releases a list dominated by high-tech industrial products as targets for proposed tariffs on $50 billion worth of imports. This is aimed at recouping losses from China’s alleged abuse of intellectual property.

4/2/2018 China says it will start levying tariffs on $3 billion of US imports including fresh fruits, nuts, wine and pork. Early April Liu He tells other officials that trade talks between the two parties broke down after the US demanded that China curtail support for high-technology industries. Beijing had offered to cut the bilateral trade deficit by $50 billion.

3/27/2018 US releases Section 301 report on China.

3/23/2018 China unveils tariffs on $3 billion of US imports in response to steel and aluminum tariffs .

3/23/2018 US complains to WTO about Chinese protection of IP.

3/22/2018 US proposes tariffs in response to China’s “unfair trade practices” related to technology transfer, IP, and innovation; says it will complain to WTO and look at restricting investment from China.

3/9/2018 Trump signs tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from all nations, including China.

2/4/2018 China starts a one-year anti-subsidy investigation into sorghum imported from the US

1/22/2018 US imposes safeguard tariffs on washing machine and solar cell imports. While much of these imports don’t come from China, the statement makes clear that Chinese dominance of the global supply chain was a concern.

Reference:

https://indianexpress.com/article/business/world-market/us-china-trade-war-timeline-of-how-we-got-here-and-whats-next-5361700/

財務報表透視

財務報表透視

種類

• 綜合損益表
• 利潤變化
• 成本變化
• 經盈效率
• 現金流量表
• 現金
• 約當現金
• 資產負債表
• 資產 - 流動資產、基金及投資、固定資產、無形資產
• 負債 - 流動負債、長期負債
• 股東權益 - 股本、資本公債、保留盈餘
• 流動資產 & 流動負債 反影償債能力
• 權益變動表
• 股權變動後之盈虧
• 股利發放後之變動

閱讀重點

1. 是否有賺錢  ( 綜合損益表)
2. 賺錢來源是本業收入還是業外收入 (綜合損益表 + 現金流量表)
3. 賺錢是現金收入還是賖帳收入 (現金流量表 +  資產負債表)
4. 股東權益報酬率(綜合損益表 + 權益變動表)
5. Earning Per Share
6. 營業收入與同期比較
7. 與同類型公司比較

五力分析

• 財務結構
• 負債佔資產比率 = 負債總額 / 資產總額
• 長期資金佔固定資產比率 = (股東權益淨額 + 長期負債) / 固定資產淨額
• 償債能力
• 流動比率 = 流動資產 + 流動負債
• 速動比率 = (流動資產 - 存貨 - 預付費用) / 流動負債
• 利息保障倍數 = 所得稅及利息費用前純益 / 本期利息支出
• 經營能力
• 應收款項週轉率 = 銷貨淨額 + 各期平均應收款項餘額
• 平均收現日數 = 365 / 應收款項週轉率
• 存貨週轉率 = 銷貨成本 / 平均存貨額
• 平均售貨日數 = 365 / 存貨週轉率
• 固定資產週轉率 = 銷貨淨額 / 固定資產淨額
• 總資產週轉率 = 銷貨淨額 / 資產總額
• 獲利能力
• 資產報酬率 = [稅後損益 + 利息費用  * (1 - 稅率)] / 平均資產總額
• 股東權益報酬率 = 稅後損益 / 平均股東權益淨額
• 純益率 = 稅後損益 / 鎖貨淨額
• 每股盈餘 = (稅後淨利 - 特別股股利) / 加權平均已發行股數
• 現金流量
• 現金流量比率 = 營業活動淨現金流量 / 流動負債
• 現金流量允當比率 = 最近五年度營業活動淨現金流量 / 最近五年度(資本支出+存貨增加額+現金股利)
• 現金再投資比率 = (營業活動淨現金流量 -  現金股利) / (固定資產毛額 + 長期投資 + 其它資產 + 營運資金)

杜邦方程式  Dupont Equation

股東權益報酬表

股本回報率 (Return On Equity)組成

• 獲利能力 : 稅後純益率 = (稅後收益 / 營業收入)
• 資產運用效率: 總資產週轉率 = (收業收入 / 總資產)
• 財務槓桿: 權益乘數 = (總資產/股東權益) = (1+槓桿比率)

ROE = (稅後收益 / 營業收入) * (收業收入 / 總資產) * (總資產/股東權益)

ROE 來自稅後純益率

• ROE 來自稅後純益率 ，代表股東的報酬都來自本業的經營能力。可能是產品技術優良無可取代，或者使用經營網路行銷省下許多管銷費用。
• 只要加強資產的運用效率，例如：企業瘦身，把閒置資產變賣後減資，就能提升 ROE

ROE來自總資產周轉率

• ROE 來自總資產周轉率公司可能用少少的資產就能大量製造產品。
• 或者行銷能力好可以賣出很多產品
• 只要一有擴廠的消息獲利可能就要馬上開始成長

ROE來自權益乘數

• 一間公司產品技術沒有特別突出淨、利率很普通、資產運用效率也沒有特別好、總資轉周轉率也跟其他公司差不多，但ROE 會跟另外兩間公司一樣，完全是因為大量使用槓桿。
• 代表這間公司跟同業相比，借了很多錢，才能跟其他兩間優等生一樣

Book i read

Faithfulness

Python Web Scraping

Libraries for Python Web Scraping:

Requests

•  using it to get the raw ingredients (i.e. raw HTML)

http://docs.python-requests.org/en/master/user/quickstart/

BeautifulSoup  

• a parsing library that can use different parsers. A parser is simply a program that can extract data from HTML and XML documents.

https://www.crummy.com/software/BeautifulSoup/bs4/doc/

https://gist.github.com/bradmontgomery/1872970

lxml

• a high-performance, production-quality HTML and XML parsing library

http://lxml.de/index.html#introduction

http://docs.python-guide.org/en/latest/scenarios/scrape/

Selenium

• to scrape sites with data tucked away by JavaScript.

http://selenium-python.readthedocs.io/

http://thiagomarzagao.com/2013/11/12/webscraping-with-selenium-part-1/

https://www.scrapehero.com/tutorial-web-scraping-hotel-prices-using-selenium-and-python/

Scrapy

• if you need to build a real spider or web-crawler

https://doc.scrapy.org/en/latest/topics/architecture.html

https://medium.com/@kaismh/extracting-data-from-websites-using-scrapy-e1e1e357651a#.sw7c9ycio

https://scrapinghub.com/

Reference

https://elitedatascience.com/python-web-scraping-libraries

Python Flask

Flask Extensions

http://flask.pocoo.org/extensions/

Security information for Flask

https://pythonhosted.org/Flask-Security/

The Flask Mega-Tutorial

https://blog.miguelgrinberg.com/post/the-flask-mega-tutorial-part-i-hello-world

Python *Args and ** kwargs

How to use *args and **kwargs
https://www.digitalocean.com/community/tutorials/how-to-use-args-and-kwargs-in-python-3

Let us first understand what are positional arguments and keyword arguments. Below is an example of function definition with Positional arguments.

def test(a,b,c):
     print(a)
     print(b)
     print(c)

test(1,2,3)
#output:
1
2
3

So this is a function definition with positional arguments. You can call it with keyword/named arguments as well:

def test(a,b,c):
     print(a)
     print(b)
     print(c)

test(a=1,b=2,c=3)
#output:
1
2
3

Now let us study an example of function definition with keyword arguments:

def test(a=0,b=0,c=0):
     print(a)
     print(b)
     print(c)
     print('-------------------------')

test(a=1,b=2,c=3)
#output :
1
2
3
-------------------------

You can call this function with positional arguments as well:

def test(a=0,b=0,c=0):
    print(a)
    print(b)
    print(c)
    print('-------------------------')

test(1,2,3)
# output :
1
2
3
---------------------------------

So we now know function definitions with positional as well as keyword arguments.

Now let us study the '*' operator and '**' operator.

Please note these operators can be used in 2 areas:

a) function call

b) function definition

The use of '*' operator and '**' operator in function call.

Let us get straight to an example and then discuss it.

def sum(a,b):  #receive args from function calls as sum(1,2) or sum(a=1,b=2)
    print(a+b)

my_tuple = (1,2)
my_list = [1,2]
my_dict = {'a':1,'b':2}

# Let us unpack data structure of list or tuple or dict into arguments with help of '*' operator
sum(*my_tuple)   # becomes same as sum(1,2) after unpacking my_tuple with '*'
sum(*my_list)    # becomes same as sum(1,2) after unpacking my_list with  '*'
sum(**my_dict)   # becomes same as sum(a=1,b=2) after unpacking by '**' 

# output is 3 in all three calls to sum function.

So remember

when the '*' or '**' operator is used in a function call -

'*' operator unpacks data structure such as a list or tuple into arguments needed by function definition.

'**' operator unpacks a dictionary into arguments needed by function definition.

Now let us study the '*' operator use in function definition. Example:

def sum(*args): #pack the received positional args into data structure of tuple. after applying '*' - def sum((1,2,3,4))
    sum = 0
    for a in args:
        sum+=a
    print(sum)

sum(1,2,3,4)  #positional args sent to function sum
#output:
10

In function definition the '*' operator packs the received arguments into a tuple.

Now let us see an example of '**' used in function definition:

def sum(**args): #pack keyword args into datastructure of dict after applying '**' - def sum({a:1,b:2,c:3,d:4})
    sum=0
    for k,v in args.items():
        sum+=v
    print(sum)

sum(a=1,b=2,c=3,d=4) #positional args sent to function sum

In function definition The '**' operator packs the received arguments into a dictionary.

So remember:

In a function call the '*' unpacks data structure of tuple or list into positional or keyword arguments to be received by function definition.

In a function call the '**' unpacks data structure of dictionary into positional or keyword arguments to be received by function definition.

In a function definition the '*' packs positional arguments into a tuple.

In a function definition the '**' packs keyword arguments into a dictionary.